Well, having abandoned barbel back in October, my time has been spent seeking chub and pike over the winter. Had quite a number of Away-Day pike ( including 3 yesterday) , but I actually spent much more time chasing them on the local rivers. Well over 20 trips. For just two pike. One small fish, one good fish.
Rightly or wrongly I have reached one conclusion: there are not very many pike in the local rivers!

Why not?

1) One reason is probably the shortage of prey fish in recent years. We have all noticed how few roach and dace we catch these days. Unless a pike can somehow manage to survive and grow well on minnows it will have had difficulty in growing up to reach a decent size. Most of the chub are too big for a small growing pike. They will take grayling and trout of course, but these may be far harder to catch. Even roach have one hell of a turn of speed when being chased by a pike: I watched one in Salford Quays last year. It was damned fast and evaded the pike after a 20 yard chase. My God it was quick.

2) Shortage of suitable swims: these are spate rivers, much of them probably being far too fast for a pike's comfort. relatively few obvious swims, many of which therefore get fished by...

3) ...teenagers: and other inexperienced anglers fishing for pike, probably following the old adage of "strike on the second run", and then being insufficiently skilled, and under equipped to remove their deep hooked snap tackle without killing the fish. I fear a number of pike have suffered in this way, and with a small resident population...well breeding needs at least a couple of fish. More for good genetic variability.

4) Small numbers may well mean it gets quite difficult to get a male and a female together. Not sure how far they are prepared to move when seeking a mate, but with fast river stretches intervening...? Probably equates to poor breeding success.

I would welcome further discussion on this, and realise others may have concluded differently. The Mersey around Warrington, big, deep and slow, might well be an easier target for next year.